Surviving the Great Recession’s Aftershocks

January 25, 2014 — Leave a comment

Surviving the Great Recession’s Aftershocks Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future by Robert B. Reich. Knopf. 2010. 192 pages. $25.

The inequality of wealth in the United States will result in a stagnant economy and political turmoil by the year 2020, argues public-policy scholar and former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert B. Reich in Aftershock. Millions of deeply indebted Americans will embrace isolationism, reject both big government and big business, and sever America’s ties with the rest of the world, he predicts.

To illustrate the size and scope of this disaster, Reich sets up a credible and horrifying scenario: The year is 2020. The recently elected president, Margaret Jones of the Independence Party, is about to set forth on a legislative agenda reflecting the frustrations of the broad, outsider constituency that elected her. Her objectives: a freeze on legal immigration and the swift deportation of all illegal immigrants; increased tariffs on foreign goods; prohibition against foreign investment; withdrawal from the World Bank, the United Nations, and other international organizations; and a default on the U.S. debt to China.

The results are immediate.

“On November 4, the day after Election Day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 50 percent in an unprecedented volume of trading,” writes Reich. “The dollar plummets 30 percent against a weighted average of other currencies. Wall Street is in a panic. Banks close. Business leaders predict economic calamity. Mainstream pollsters, pundits, and political consultants fill the airwaves with expressions of shock and horror. Over and over again, they ask: How could this have happened?”

This aftershock, says Reich, is a direct result of Americans failing to learn the lessons of the Great Depression, thus setting the country up on a course for yet another economic crisis. The most important of these lessons is that too much money resting in the hands of too few people cannot grow an e c o n o m y. W h a t ‘ s needed is an orderly division of income spread across lower, middle, and upper classes, he argues. When income (hence, wealth) is too concentrated among elites, the economy atrophies and declines.

It’s a classic Keynesian argument that would ring shrill and tinny if we didn’t live in such Dickensian times. Consider that, prior to the Great Recession of 2008, income and wealth inequality in the United States were higher than they had been any time in the recent past other than just before the Great Depression, with the top 1%-those with incomes more than $380,000 per year-owning roughly 23% of the assets. Median wages for workers have been stagnant since the 1970s, at about $45,000 a year, despite the fact that the economy itself is much larger than it was three decades ago. Those gains mostly went to those at the top.

This present situation is, of course, not without historic precedent. In the 1700s, wealth inequality in the American colonies was similar to that of the United States today. The situation was particularly dire in Boston, where the top 5% of the population controlled 25% of the wealth in the 1720s (this would become 50% by 1770). Too often we forget that the decades leading up to the American Revolution were marked by the burning of rich merchants’ shops, occasional riots, and massive resentment over the issue of debt and wealth inequality, as chronicled by the late historian Howard Zinn in A People’s History of the United States: 1492-Present.

Today’s wealth inequality is a moral failing, says Reich, but it’s also an operational malfunction at the root of many of America’s other problems. An economy that is growing across all income levels encourages people to buy more things like new cars, consumer electronics, bachelor ‘s degrees, bigger houses, and the like. Instead, over the last two decades, a larger portion of the wealth went to a smaller group; as a result, Americans were forced to resort to a number of coping mechanisms to continue to consume at ever higher levels.

The first of these coping mechanisms was the two-income household. In the 1970s, the mass entry of women into the workforce increased household income, but only up to a point. Over the last decades, those economic gains have been eaten up by such things as the costs of child care.

The second coping mechanism that Americans employed to mitigate stagnant wages was longer working hours. This also worked well until, by the mid-2000s, Americans were putting in 500 more hours-that’s 12 more weeks-of paid work a year than they were in 1970.

Finally, Americans resorted to saving less and borrowing more in order to continue consuming at ever higher levels. Reich points out that average household debt was 138% of household income in 2007, up from a manageable 55% in the 1960s. This represents the largest gap since the Great Depression. Much of that debt was tied up in home loans that people would never be able to pay off.

The question becomes, Does voluminous spending by the well-funded few necessarily lead to reckless spending on the part of the many? Reich argues that it does. There is some recent independent research to back him up on this. In an October 2010 paper titled “Expenditure Cascades,” Robert H. Frank of Cornell University, Adam Seth Levine of Vanderbilt University, and Oege Dijk of the European University show that “changes in one group’s spending shift the frame of reference that defines consumption standards for others just below them on the income scale….”

What of the gainers, the 10% who saw unprecedented wealth and income increases? They didn’t fare as well as you might expect. With too much capital to ever spend efficiently, many of them invested in a series of asset bubbles through unscrupulous Wall Street intermediaries, with predictably lackluster results.

The battle against falling middle class wages is one that Reich has been fighting for decades, since serving as labor secretary in the Clinton White House. He acknowledges that, even in those instances when he’s had the ear of the president (he also served briefly on the Obama administration team), he hasn’t had much success in implementing the sorts of structural changes that would set the nation’s distribution of income on a more equitable path.

“We in the Clinton administration tinkered. We raised the minimum wage…. We offered students from poor families access to college and expanded a refundable tax credit for low-income workers…. All these steps were helpful but frustratingly small in light of the larger backward lunge.”

Reich lays out several proposals- either reasonable or radical depending on your point of view-to correct the imbalance of wealth in the next decade:

* A reverse income tax. The government would put extra money into the paychecks of low wage earners and cut taxes on middle class Americans (those earning less than $90,000 per year). The policy would be modeled after the Earned Income Tax Credit but would be more ambitious in reach. Reich speculates that the cost to the government would be about $600 billion per year.

* A carbon tax collected against energy companies. Reich estimates that, if set at $35 per metric ton of CO2, this tax would raise about as much as the reverse income tax (wage supplement) would cost- around $600 billion.

* A one-time “severance tax” levied against employers who lay off long-term workers, equal to 75% of a worker’s yearly salary.

* Federal subsidization of less profitable but socially valuable college majors. Public universities, under a Reich plan, would be free, and loans for private schools would be available at low cost. Upon graduating, a student who took such a loan would pay about 10% of his or her income on the loan for 10 years. After that, the loan would be considered fully paid. “This way,” says Reich, “graduates who pursue low income occupations such as social work, teaching, or legal services would be subsidized by graduates who pursue high-income occupations including business, finance, and corporate law.”

The effect of these proposals, with the exception of the college funding one, would be to transfer investing power away from the private sector (rich people and their money advisors) and put it in the hands of the federal government, which would then distribute those funds to the people to buy consumer goods.

There’s a libertarian argument against this, but also a practical one. As Reich himself points out, a rising share of consumer spending now goes abroad, as more Americans purchase products made in other countries. Taxing U.S. energy companies- at a time when a larger than ever portion of the fuel the country uses comes from Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia-in order to pay Americans to purchase electronics from Malaysia, toys from China, and wine from Spain seems unlikely to have a positive effect on national GDP.

A better use of such money might be infrastructure or public works, which would put more money in the hands of Americans. Reich acknowledges the dilapidated state of the country’s roads and bridges, but he doesn’t propose a single large-scale public infrastructure project. In fact, he derides the 1990s as a time when too much private investment capital resulted in “more miles of fiber-optic cable than could ever be profitable.” The 1990s telecom asset bubble was certainly severe, but Reich disregards or ignores the types of services that can be offered over the Internet once bandwidth limitations are removed. Perhaps, while serving in the White House, he never experienced the frustration of a slow download.

The idea of a company paying severance costs of 75% of a terminated employee’s yearly salary-in essence paying the “social costs” for outsourcing- is a radical one for the United States. Businesses would argue that such a measure would crimp their flexibility and that the ability to hire and fire freely helps keep companies lean, nimble, and competitive. They might say that, faced with a 75% severance requirement, firing anybody would be too difficult and American companies would come to resemble Japanese companies during the 1990s-the so called “lost decade,” when every employee was guaranteed a high degree of job security regardless of whether or not he (it was mostly men) helped or hindered the overall corporation. The suggestion that companies be penalized for firing people reads like an open pander to labor interests, not a viable revenue generating strategy. A straight tax hike on corporate entities, regardless of hiring or firing behavior, would seem to meet the same objective with fewer downsides.

The principal argument against Reich is that his proposals are politically untenable in an environment where any effort to raise taxes on any American, for any reason, meets with nearly insurmountable resistance from the Right and passionate charges of socialism on the floor of the House of Representatives. The 2010 election saw a number of Tea Party candidates rise to power in some very poor states like Kentucky- places that would benefit greatly from the wealth-redistributing policies that Reich proposes. How did these candidates win? They succeeded by promising to thwart any increase on taxation for the very wealthy, no matter what the cost; they promised to halt any remaining “bail-out” funds from being spent. They vowed to undo the recently enacted health care law and its provisions to expand health coverage to more Americans.

It’s one thing to argue that the country, running a record deficit, cannot afford such policies. It is another thing entirely to suggest that such policies are not in the interests of the growing poor. Yet, people in the first district of West Virginia and the first district of Arkansas voted against their own interests.

What does this show? Perhaps the worst enemy of the American middle class is not the most wealthy 1%, but the mistrustful and ever-angrier middle class itself, all of which adds to the timeliness and value of Reich’s achievement with this important book.


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About the Reviewer

Patrick Tucker is the senior editor of THE FUTURIST magazine and the director of communications for the World Future Society.

Originally published in THE FUTURIST, January-February 2011


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